NLINE dating once seemed the perfect
option for Allison Gold, a stock trader in Manhattan. It was a vast,
exhilarating marketplace, humming along with the efficiency and
unlimited opportunity of the financial markets of Wall Street, where
she makes her living.
Ms. Gold lithe, outgoing, athletic, blond seemed to have plenty
to sell. And judging by the profiles of men on Match.com, the buy
side had no shortages either. If she wanted a guy with green eyes
and she sort of did she could type that requirement right into
the search field alongside the desired height, income and ZIP code.
"At first, you're like a kid in a candy store," said Ms. Gold,
who is 46. Hundreds of men answered her ad, and they all seemed
great. "They're perfect," she said, referring to the way men portrayed
themselves in their profiles. "They're all like the guys from `Ocean's
Eleven.' "
Then she got a closer look. On dates, more than a few of the handsome,
rugged, athletic types she thought she had been corresponding with
looked more like George Costanza than George Clooney. Some of
those "single" guys turned out to have wives.
Feeling weary and, she said, "jerked around," Ms. Gold let her
paid subscription to Match.com expire, and she has turned to real-life
singles mixers for professionals. "I think I just burned out," she
said. "It's kind of like communism. On paper, it's a perfect system."
Apparently, many others have also found that the god of online
dating has failed.
"It's clear that it's plateauing," said Peter M. Zollman, the founder
of Classified Intelligence, a consulting company that focuses on
online advertising. "A lot of people feel like, `I've been there,
done that. I've met everybody there is to meet. I'll take a break.'
"
Evidence is appearing that after years of rocketing growth, the
online dating industry is drifting to earth. In 2002 the industry's
revenues rose 73 percent over the previous year's, according to
industry reports, and in 2003 they grew again by 77 percent. This
year the growth has cooled, relatively speaking, to 19 percent,
and tepid increases are forecast for coming years.
"The slowing has begun," said Nate Elliott, an analyst at Jupiter
Research in New York.
Many early adopters those quick to explore innovations are
moving on to the next big thing, which looks a lot like the last
things on the dating front: bars, real-life matchmaking services,
setups arranged by friends.
Consumer spending on online personals dipped during the first two
quarters of this year, to less than $114 million a quarter from
about $117 million in the final quarter of 2003, as measured by
comScore Networks, a research company in Reston, Va. "Virtually
any new industry goes through a period of rapid growth and expansion,
followed by some adjustment," explained Daniel E. Hess, a vice president
of the firm.
This industry, apparently, is adjusting busily. In September Match.com
laid off 10 percent of its work force and replaced its chief executive.
Its third-quarter sales inched up 3 percent over the same period
the previous year, and profits dropped 37 percent, a decrease that
one executive at the company attributed to a rise in marketing costs.
An online service called True, which started up in Irving, Tex.,
in January, has already slashed 60 percent of its 162 original employees,
though it says it is now rehiring. Spring Street Networks, which
operates the dating networks for Nerve and The Village Voice, has
recently made significant staff cuts. In August MatchNet, a company
in Beverly Hills that operates JDate.com and AmericanSingles.com,
backed off from plans to go public.
All of this is not to say that Internet dating as a business is
on the ropes. Niche sites catering to elderly singles, lesbian
singles, obese singles continue to spring up. More than 800 online
dating sites now exist, according to Hitwise, a company that tracks
Web industries.
But as a heady pop-cultural revolution otherwise known as a fad
the Net no longer seems to have the capacity to reinvent the world's
mating rituals. A moment has passed.
"There's a burnout factor that's almost inevitable in the online
dating world," said Mr. Zollman of Classified Intelligence. In other
words, either you find lasting love or you grow sick of surfing
for it. At Match.com, which says it has 50 million profiles in its
database, subscribers stay for only about five months on average,
said Joe Cohen, the chief operating officer. (Subscriptions start
at $24.95 a month.) He emphasized that about 40 percent of those
who leave eventually return.
"We've tried a number of things to keep them around longer," he
said. "But you know what? We don't really want them to stick around
longer. We want them to find partners."
The clearest measure of a nascent weariness with online dating
may be the expansion of defiantly offline dating services, some
of them set up to cater to frustrated refugees from the Web.
"People think online dating has hurt our business when in fact
it's made it grow," said Sherri Murphy, who operates a matchmaking
service called Elite Connections in the Los Angeles area. She charges
singles $795 to $5,000 to help them find mates among clients she
says are carefully screened. "Online dating is a job in itself,"
Ms. Murphy said. "People come to us to relieve the burden."
As Renιe Piane sees it, "Online, there's no connectedness." Ms.
Piane is the president of Rapid Dating in Santa Monica, Calif.,
one of several companies around the country that now manage "speed
dating" parties where singles cycle through a rapid-fire series
of five-minute minidates (a bit like musical chairs for grown-ups),
so they can get a sense of whom they might want to date. "You can't
tell if there's any chemistry" online, Ms. Piane said. "With speed
dating, you know in the first five minutes."
Ms. Piane canceled her own subscription to Match.com in May 2002,
around the time she ran across, in person, an old high school acquaintance
she soon fell in love with. She complained that her profile is still
available on Match.com, giving false hope to hundreds of men, and
said she has deleted more than 200 e-mail messages from eager bachelors
in the last few weeks alone.
Perhaps no one has been quite so literal in trying to build a business
around online burnout as Ilana Eberson. Ms. Eberson, who worked
at Jcupid.com, a former online dating site for Jewish singles, started
a company called Real Live People Party four months ago.
"The whole concept is, `Disconnect from the Internet, reconnect
with real life,' because we all agree that the bloom is off the
rose with online dating," Ms. Eberson said.
It's not that Ms. Eberson's offline alternatives are revolutionary.
So far, her company has held several singles mixers at New York
bars, and she is planning to put on a scavenger hunt at the Metropolitan
Museum of Art as well as a singles cruise. But she maintains that
her timing is just right. After a few euphoric years mouse in hand,
people are jaded about online dating, she said.
On her company's Web site, http://www.reallivepeopleparty.com/
(yes, even offline dating services have Web sites), she started
a contest in which the best tale of an "online date from hell" will
earn free entry to a party.
Dr. Marty Klein, a marriage and family counselor and sex therapist
in Palo Alto, Calif., said: "What always happens with new technologies,
whether it's computers or cellphones, is that at first there are
early adopters. Then it gets out into the commercial realm. Your
grandma gets one. It's always over-hyped in the beginning, then
turns out not to be the answer to everything, so some people with
unrealistic expectations blame the technology. Like everything else,
there's a predictable cultural curve to it."
Jill M. Horn, a real estate manager who lives in Manhattan, said
that after divorcing in 2001 she joined about five paid dating sites.
E-mail begat more e-mail. There were personality tests and phone
calls.
"It's a lot of effort, and it's really no different from the people
you meet in the offline world," she said. "I'm becoming disenchanted.
I've got people contacting me from North Carolina and New
Mexico, and that's not going to work."
"The argument is that technology is supposed to make your life
easier, but that's not necessarily the case," she added.
Rosie Koul is an information technology specialist
for the automobile industry who lives in a suburb of Detroit. Now 34, she divorced
three years ago and immediately turned to online options like
Kiss.com, as many of her single friends had done.
An expert in marketing data, Ms. Koul kept meticulous
records of her online activities. Last year, in one nine-week
period, her profile was browsed 4,212 times, mostly during the
first four weeks after it was posted. At one point, she said
she did fall in love with a man online, or at least his profile.
In print, he was clever and engaging. She laughed out loud as
his witty e-mail. Finally, they agreed to speak on the phone.
Nothing.
"I don't know what happened in the exchange, but
he was boring," she said glumly. "I even went back to the e-mails
to make sure I was talking to the right guy."
"Having been a marketer, there's a point of diminishing
returns," Ms. Koul added. "Do I want to spend all these hours
at my PC or out having fun and meeting people?"
Lately, she has turned to a service based in nearby
Royal Oak, Mich., called Table for Eight, which organizes intimate
dinners of four women and four men, about 70 percent of whom
have had their flings with online services, said Regina Stocco,
the company's president.
While most women interviewed complained that too many men just
"window shop" online and are unwilling to consider any but the prettiest
faces, Zev Guttman, 28, a mortgage banker in Monsey, N.Y., said
it was men who are at a disadvantage online: it is still typically
the man who has to make the first move, and it is still the woman
who gets to pick and choose.
As a result, he said, he either had to lie about, say, the fact
that he is divorced or face an empty mailbox every day. "If I
write that I'm divorced, I don't have a chance of hooking up," he
said. "If I write that I'm single, they're not interested because
they think I lied to them" once they discover the truth.
"I'm just going to go back to matchmaking, or friends," he said.
For every Zev Guttman who lets his screen go dark, another lovelorn
hopeful will undoubtedly rise in his place. Bill Tancer, a researcher
at the Redwood City, Calif., office of Hitwise, said a lot of the
industry's growth will come from groups arriving late to the online
singles scene, like the elderly.
And technology being technology, online dating continues to morph.
Stuck in line at the post office? You can now pass the time hunting
for a life partner, or at least a quick hookup, on your cellphone,
using Match.com's mobile service. The True online service screens
for both felons and cads through a partnership with Rapsheets, which
reviews public records to verify that people claiming to be single
in their profiles actually are. Yahoo Personals offers the opportunity
to include a 30-second video clip in profiles as an opening line.
Hey, it's almost like meeting someone.
In a sense, the fate of online dating is probably a bit like that
of singles bars. There are still singles, and there are still singles
in bars. But the "singles bar" that caused such a frisson became
a relic of the "Looking for Mr. Goodbar" 1970's. It became ordinary.
That is probably one reason that online dating seems to have lost
its buzz among its own Generation 1.0. "In the last five years,
it's become so mainstream," said Sherrie Schneider, an author of
"The Rules for Online Dating" (Pocket Books, 2002), who remains
a great champion of the practice. "It's your boss. It's your co-worker.
Every single woman in my neighborhood is on Match.com. It's like
brushing your teeth."